Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.309717 0.360693 0.416177 0.480891 0.554127 0.634262 0.728404
2025-05-18 0.221459 0.283211 0.355805 0.446869 0.557420 0.686621 0.848327
2025-05-25 0.157683 0.221275 0.301886 0.410302 0.550864 0.725365 0.956581
2025-06-01 0.118969 0.183130 0.270712 0.396668 0.570396 0.798445 1.116666
2025-06-08 0.089045 0.150819 0.241751 0.381559 0.586419 0.870119 1.285834
2025-06-15 0.071376 0.132690 0.229720 0.388573 0.634689 0.992466 1.540124
2025-06-22 0.051782 0.106801 0.201074 0.366193 0.637520 1.052301 1.716215
2025-06-29 0.038488 0.088193 0.180382 0.352845 0.652637 1.133146 1.934807
2025-07-06 0.028251 0.072272 0.160844 0.337888 0.663217 1.209189 2.156980
2025-07-13 0.022633 0.064124 0.154036 0.344704 0.712546 1.354882 2.508424
2025-07-20 0.017360 0.054900 0.142891 0.341276 0.743477 1.474425 2.832131
2025-07-27 0.013563 0.047865 0.134685 0.342292 0.783372 1.615359 3.209539
2025-08-03 0.010462 0.041575 0.127000 0.344153 0.828149 1.776012 3.649519
2025-08-10 0.007308 0.033408 0.112138 0.326588 0.830664 1.859284 3.962010
2025-08-17 0.004914 0.026203 0.097208 0.305086 0.821073 1.918645 4.239044
2025-08-24 0.003578 0.022024 0.089436 0.299866 0.847635 2.055242 4.682510
2025-08-31 0.002551 0.018301 0.081593 0.292459 0.868081 2.182678 5.123992
2025-09-07 0.002019 0.016540 0.079740 0.301935 0.932378 2.413613 5.802650
2025-09-14 0.001351 0.013237 0.070690 0.287142 0.932080 2.502165 6.195540
2025-09-21 0.000934 0.010926 0.064328 0.278980 0.948042 2.630390 6.688177
2025-09-28 0.000628 0.008901 0.058014 0.268969 0.957062 2.743920 7.161739
2025-10-05 0.000486 0.008036 0.056680 0.276478 1.018362 2.991740 7.960881
2025-10-12 0.000347 0.006900 0.053289 0.275269 1.053688 3.180039 8.643321